Silver Or Gold ?

source: here

Despite silver thriving within the precious metals in 2014, when most people think of precious metals, gold is typically the first example that comes to mind. Many people are aware of gold’s role as a currency for thousands of years, its ability to resist tarnishing, its rarity, density and luster (all of which are also true for silver to varying extents). Gold really has enjoyed its position as top dog in the precious metals world, BUT, it is possible that silver may be even more important to the world’s future than gold!

Due to its lack of industrial uses, the overwhelming majority of mined gold is turned into jewelry, bars or coins. In contrast, the uses for silver dwarf those of gold. Few are aware but silver is the best conductor of heat of all metals, the best conductor of electricity of all metals and one of the most reflective substances on the planet.  Moreover, gold is roughly 67 times more expensive than one ounce of silver, yet many recent studies estimate that there are only ~16 ounces of silver in the earth’s crust for every ounce of gold.

So who actually is using or buying silver? From solar companies taking advantage of silver’s reflective and conductive properties for solar electricity generation to textile companies adding silver to athletic gear to help kill bacteria and odor from sweating, industrial users have been a clear purchaser of silver for decades.

Other significant purchasers of silver have been Chinese and Indian citizens who for centuries have traditionally given gifts of silver to celebrate holidays and weddings. More recently we have begun to see hedge funds and pension funds take delivery of silver as either a way to take advantage of a potentially undervalued asset or a means to diversify away from dollar denominated assets.

As geopolitical uncertainty increases, we have also started to see many North American citizens purchase physical silver as a way to own an asset removed from counterparty risk to financial institutions. The myriad of new investors and uses for silver has most likely contributed to the 6-fold increase in investment demand for silver over the past decade alone.

In Mastering A Discipline, We Cultivate Self-Mastery...

source: here

Why do we trade?  To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves.  Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work.  Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day.  Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement.  Finally, there is income.  A successful trader can make seven figures in a year — and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.
  So why do they trade?  Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours.  Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways.  Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?
 Perhaps we can illuminate this question by asking it of practitioners in other fields.  Why do artists continue their craft long after they receive recognition for their paintings, novels, or films?  Why do elite Special Forces troops stay in units that test their mettle even after they’ve earned their coveted badges?  
A gifted athlete such as Michael Jordan earned plenty of money and honors and, in fact, did retire on a couple of occasions—only to return to his game.  Why?
  There is something deep here that speaks to the nature of productive work.  People retire from jobs and even careers, but they never abandon their callings.  For some, work means something more than earning a living or achieving a lifestyle.  Work is their path in life.  It is the way they have chosen—or perhaps that has chosen them—for self-expression and self-development.
  Suppose the pastor of a large, successful church wrote a book, made significant money, and promptly retired from the clergy and all religious life.  What would that say?  Surely, we would think, this person’s faith could not have been too heartfelt. 
 But why should our productive work mean less to us than the clergy means to a devout pastor?  Presumably, the religious life meets deep, important needs for the pastor.  Is it really so different for the artist?  The athlete?  The trader?
   The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields.  They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves.  In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery.  In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.  The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. 
 Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations.  The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings.  To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better:  in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.
  Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.  If my deepest view of godhood is that of a meek and all-forgiving Christ, perhaps I will be drawn to an occupation of service.  If my deepest view is more akin to the ancient Greeks, whose gods sent heroes on quests, then my calling may be on a battlefield or a playing field. 

 Either way, in work we find something divine within ourselves.  Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality.  That is why we trade.

95% Of Failures Come From People Who Have The Habit Of Making Excuses

How To Trade Like Brian Shannon

source:  here



A champion poker player abides by several concrete rules including:

 1) know when to fold;

 2) know your opponent;

 3) bet the proper size;

 4) push your advantage when you have the best cards;

 Similarly, professional independent trader Brian Shannon uses discipline and risk-management to consistently win in the markets. Brian is one of my trading mentors. I spent a few years following his blog and ultimately his book Technical Analysis on Multiple Timeframes

 During that time I learned what Curtis Faith meant when he said, “One of the ways great traders distinguish themselves from average traders is by their ability to adhere to methods.” Brian’s methods are clear and simple. Like a great trainer, Brian perpetually brings the wandering students back to the basics.

 He reminds us we are playing a game of probabilities and if we confuse this point, we cannot be successful over the long term.I firmly believe that twenty years from now when we look back at this Golden Era of Day Trading, Brian Shannon will be one of the faces and voices that will define this space and time. He is both a true student and teacher of the markets who can teach you to be a professional trader if you have the right combination of skills and discipline.

I recently had the chance to chat with Brian about his career, his Premium Service at StockTwits, his advice for traders, what he looks for in successful traders, and how his best and worst trades affected his career. So, let’s deal the cards and see how the master plays our hand …


Tell me a little bit about that sweet rush with trading and you became addicted and you knew you were hooked?
 

The first time I got that needle in my arm was when I was about 14 or 15-years old. I was living in Boston, Massachusetts. At the time Boston was the car theft capital of the world. There was a local company called LoJack trying to come up with a solution. I saw something on the news about the company — how they were giving away the tracking units to the State Police. 

I had been watching Wall St. Week with my Dad for a couple years, and I finally said, “Dad, would that be a good stock to buy?” I had some money saved from different jobs I did as a teen. He said, “Yeah, let’s invest.” I told him I had $500. He said the stock was at $4 and he’d put up the rest of the money so I could buy 1000 shares.

Long story short, he gave me the leverage — I didn’t realize it was leverage at the time. We bought 1000 shares and the stock went from $4 a share to $10 in about 3 or 4 months. As a teen, I thought I was going to be rich beyond my wildest dreams. I thought, “Why would anyone ever get a normal job when you could just do something like this that is obviously so easy?”

Do you feel as though you have not had a regular job since you’ve been a trader?

Not exactly. I have had regular jobs. I started in the industry as a retail stock broker. In my mind that job was a glorified telemarketing position rather than a job in high finance. I’ve had a number of brokerage jobs.

Then I worked as a proprietary trader, managed a proprietary trading desk, and managed a small hedge fund for period of time. So, I’ve had little detours along the way, but I always consider myself a trader first and foremost.

 I’ve noticed a theme in my interviews with traders. Many of them started because they thought it looked easy or did well on the first few tries. At what point did you realize trading required a lot of effort to be successful?

I had always been attracted to momentum names. And, I had experienced some heart breaking losses along the way that brought me back to reality. To survive in this game is difficult for people because our emotions get in the way.

 But, if you do the work — which is hard work — and you’re disciplined, then there is an equal chance for all of us to succeed.

As far as daily preparation goes, it really begins a little bit after the market closes. I might go exercise or something, then come back to my desk for a couple hours. I usually look through 150 or 200 different stocks and ETFs. I like to get a feel for set ups with the potentially lowest risk yet high probability of profits.

It’s a process of elimination to go through the charts on a lot of different time frames and try to imagine different scenarios: good and bad. Then I develop a risk-reward proposition and check if earnings are due out. So, that’s the evening routine. Then, about an hour and a half before the market opens, I’m sitting down, going through some emails and looking at some headlines.

 I don’t read the news much — just the headlines. I’m trying to see what’s shaping the sentiment of the day. I want to see if there is any unusual activity with the stocks I was looking to trade. I set alerts, write notes in front of me as little reminders, and try to get into that zone for the open. I make sure I have a plan of action so I don’t become just a reactionary participant — which I think a lot of people tend to do.


Sounds like you had great training and experience. At what point did you decide to leave the prop trading firm and go out on your own?

I left the retail brokerage industry in ’93 or ’94. At that time I became a proprietary trader for a firm in New York. That meant I had to put up $25,000 and they would give me 10:1 or 20:1 leverage. There really wasn’t much support. They made me call in my orders because the internet was still 28K dial-up — 56K was the big deal. 

Prior to that I had scraped together $25,000 and was trying to build a little cushion. I was trading a stock that had this miracle wrinkled cream which cured all wrinkles [both laugh]. I traded it over and over again. Then one Thursday evening I left a position open over night.

 I blew off the next day of work to go skiing with my Dad in Vail. Before the market opened I called the office to see where the stock was trading. It was halted! The company was being investigated because they had a bullshit product that didn’t work. The FDA shut them down.

Obviously I got hit with a major mental blow. There I was about to be a proprietary trader in the next two weeks and I just got hit hard. I thought, “This is going to be tough.” So, I persevered and went through with it anyways. Since that first day I worked as an individual trader. I had a small hedge fund for a while, but the numbers didn’t make sense. 

The fund was about a million and a half dollars, so I don’t think you could call it a hedge fund. Then I ran a day trading office. From there our business got bought out by MarketWise, a local competitor, who was involved in trading and investor education. I went to work for them. I developed courses and traded as a proprietary trader for MarketWise. I developed some software and did a lot of different things. They always gave me a good amount to trade with as well.

Then, about three and a half years ago I started doing a daily blog to help keep my thoughts fresh. At MartketWise I had also written a daily newsletter. Writing was really good discipline for me to organize my thoughts and think about what might happen the next day. So, I started the blog to keep my good habits flowing. Then I slowly built up the blog to the point where it made sense to monetize. I partnered with StockTwits to accomplish that.

You and Joe Donohue — Upsidetrader — were the centerpiece of core growth in the very beginning at StockTwits. Can you tell me about your experience and the value you see in StockTwits?

At first, I was a little skeptical of StockTwits. When Howard Lindzon approached me with the idea, I thought, “I don’t know. It could be like a Yahoo! Message Board and if I want a friend I’ll get a dog.” [Laughing] I didn’t expect to see such high quality people on StockTwits. It’s really a positive platform. 

People call things honestly. Everyone makes mistakes and if you do them out in the open, people will see that and trust you more. It’s great to find people who are similar and also somewhat different from my approach. I like to get different perspectives.


The danger for newer people is to blindly follow others into trades. That can be a concern. For example, I’ll say I bought a certain stock and later I’ll tweet I sold it for break-even. Two days later someone will email me and say, “Hey, I’m still holding that stock. What do you think?”

 I’ll try to be as polite as possible and say, “You’re on your own. I told you I got out of that stock.” So, the danger is that people just blindly follow others. Regardless, StockTwits a great source for identifying symbols you might not normally look at, getting some news, and great links to real fascinating stories.

StockTwits is what you choose to make of it. The people I follow have chosen to take it seriously. They put forth a positive effort which makes it really exciting for me. Also, StockTwits TV gives you a lot of great views where it’s more than just 140 characters. You can get a full dimensional aspect.

Who do you follow on Stocktwits?

I’ve found some good traders and good friends on StockTwits. There are also people that fit into both of those categories such as Joe Donohue (Upsidetrader), Todd Stottlemyre whose skills as trader I respect a lot, TodayTrader who does a great job, SMB Capital is a professional trading firm with consistently valuable insights, and AnnMarie2006 has a great head on her shoulders. There are a lot of others I follow, but those are the core.

Brian, you have seen and taught many traders. What are three of the most important things you think every trader must learn to be successful?
 On the flip-side, what are three of the most common mistakes every trader must avoid?

First, successful traders must have flexibility in their opinion. The market doesn’t care what you or I think about a stock. The market is going to do what it does. Things will happen that seem very irrational. So, you just have to be prepared for anything. 

You must have a back up plan for every situation.

Second, keep your analysis fairly straight forward and simple. By that I mean understand the market structure and then learn to trade the stocks that match your personality in terms of price, volume, and that sort of thing.

Third, at the end of the day, it’s only price that pays. Everything else is just opinion. Even if it comes from the President of the United States, George Soros or anyone else, the market will show their opinion is wrong at times. So, if you blindly hold onto something because of your belief of ego, you can get run over and then backed up on.

Insofar as mistakes, the first is trying to master short-term trading before understanding longer-term fundamentals. Basically, trying to run before you learn how to walk. You have to go into it slow. 
The market will be there. But people have to slow down a little and not try to get rich on every trade.

Second, realize that you’re going to make mistakes. If you can cut those losers quickly, you’ll keep those losses small enough to come back the next day. There are always more opportunities.

Third, right now a timely mistake is not understanding what they’re trading. Leveraged ETFs are a perfect example. To this day I am shocked I get horror stories emailed to me about people who are still holding FAZ and not understanding why they haven’t broken even yet. So, understand what it is you are trading and be aware of the leverage.

If you were screening candidates to start your own trading firm, what would those screens be looking for as both strengths and weaknesses?

Obviously, you want somebody who is smart –someone who has the horsepower to understand the markets. But, not necessarily the MBAs. They don’t always make the best candidates. I prefer street smarts — someone who is a bit of a hustler and quick on their feet.

 If I was interviewing a candidate to come trade my money, I would also want to know that he or she has the ability to change their opinion when they see evidence mounting that they are wrong.

I think a good way to judge some of those things is to go out drinking with someone and see them get their guard down. Then they will reveal who they really are. If they can maintain their clever wit, I would be impressed. Another test would be to go driving with them — and not in that order!

 I’d like to see aggressive drivers who can successfully drive through traffic and various things that get thrown up at them without endangering anyone. I’d like to see someone who is anticipatory in their thought flow. For example, if they see a light turning yellow, do they have enough time to make it safe or should they start slowing down. 

What is their instinct? Do they stop at every yellow light? Or, do they go for it on some of those when it looks safe. That’s oversimplifying it, but I think they have to be anticipatory and driving could be a good way to effectively measure it.

Moving on to some more trading specific topics, I want to discuss the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) indicator. My lessons with you taught me about VWAP. Can you explain why VWAP is important yet remains underutilized by individual traders?

VWAP gives us a benchmark of value throughout the time period a trader references. On a one-day timeframe, VWAP tells us who is in control — the buyers or sellers. If VWAP is rising throughout the day, then buyers are firmly in control. 

So, there is no reason to short that market. If VWAP is falling throughout the day, then sellers are firmly in control. So, there is no reason to buy that market. VWAP is a great way of looking at supply and demand as it changes throughout the day.

VWAP is underutilized because it’s still not known well or offered by many places. Until recently, VWAP has been considered an institutional tool. So, most people haven’t found enough information about how to use it. However, I am starting to see it available more often and discussed more each day, so that is changing.

Brian, if you were hanging out with another pro trader who asked what are the one or two most important lessons you have, how would you answer?

All of my secrets to success are in my book. But in that situation I would say to focus on the cyclical rhythms of capital through the markets on all timeframes. Then, learn how to understand the way each timeframe fits in with another. 

The long-term trend is nothing more than a bunch of shorter-term trends. So, the short-term trend leads the long-term trend. You have to understand that different participants come into the market at various levels and timeframes.

The market is always a moving target. However, if you can understand who is doing what — rather than memorizing patterns — you will be successful. Put yourself in an investors shoes and ask, “How would you feel if you were a swing trader or day trader at this point on the chart?” Then you can think about the cumulative perspective of the market and support it with the lines and bars on our charts.

You mentioned trends. I’ve also noticed you have a great nose for sniffing out trends. As you know, the conventional wisdom says that once something reaches the headlines, you’re too late. At what point do you get involved with the trending stocks? 

I understand the fundamentals of a lot of companies. It’s a fine balance. For example, I’ve traded the stem cell stocks over the past few election cycles. Bush was going to veto them and Obama promised to give federal funding to stem cell companies. So, watching the television and headlines made me realize this issue was coming into the public perception. 

Then I look at the charts to see whether the stocks have already made a move. If they have, I will dismiss them. If not, I will start stalking the stocks and wait for evidence that larger players are accumulating the shares. Then I will establish positions as the stocks start to break out before big volume starts coming in.

But you have to be very active and attentive. In the case of stem cells, the stocks plummeted the day Obama signed the bill. It was a classic case of “buy the rumor, sell the news.” The problem is these companies are years away from making money or bringing things to market.

 Ordinary investors at home don’t recognize this. They just think, “Wow. That’s great news. I’m going to invest because maybe it can cure diseases.” This person is going to be late to the game if they are investing this way. Unfortunately, it’s simply a matter of not understanding how the stock market works.

Brian, what is it like to become such a successful trader outside the traditional system? Do you ever dream of running a fund or trading a book for a huge financial firm?

Definitely. The first time I ever heard of George Soros I fell in love with the idea of getting wealthy doing such an interesting thing. It’s something I will look at in the future because my current projects still require a lot of attention. 

Even at 41-years old I am still young in this business. I hope the opportunity will be there a little later down the line. I’m not very interested in all the back-end, administrative stuff. So I’d probably be a much better partner for someone who wants to manage that part.

We took some questions for you from our Twitter followers. A frequently asked question was to share your best trade and worst trade. Do you mind sharing?

I don’t mind at all. My best trade was a sector trade. Back in 2001 I recognized that security stocks would be more important in an increasingly unsafe world. So, I identified about a dozen companies — many of which are no longer around. I have always been a fairly conservative trader. I don’t usually swing for the fences.

But at this point in time I had deep conviction these stocks would rally. So, I presented the thesis to my boss. I asked him for additional buying power to take advantage of the opportunity.

After I got the necessary approval, I loaded up on five different companies and rode the trend perfectly. The prices kept running higher and the stories got bigger. I made more than one trade, but it was a memorable score. Fortunately, on the negative side, I didn’t load up and explode. I have two “worst trade” stories. 

One is already on my blog, so I’ll share a different one. Back seven or eight years ago, the company Taser went on a run. Some days the stock could move 10 or 20 points. Then it was splitting and running again. Well, one day I thought, “This has got to be it.” 

So, I went to sell the stock short but there were no shares to borrow. Unlucky for me, I found Taser warrants. Since there were no restrictions to short them, I decided to trade those instead.

I started my trade very conservatively with smaller batches of shares. The stock would drop 10 points in a heartbeat and I thought, “I got it! I rode the stock on the way up, now I’m going to be the master of the warrants on the way down.” Then one day I shorted a few hundred shares and they went against me a couple points.

 So, I decided to add to my position and short a little more … and short a little more … and short a little more. Before I knew it I was down about $15,000 or $20,000 on the day.

As a result of my experience, I have the strongest conviction that you really need to trade the trend. You can catch little blips in the opposite direction, but you must stick with the primary trend.

A lot of traders deal with the dreaded deer-in-the-headlights moment when things spiral out of control. At what point did you know you had to pull the rip chord to prevent a career ending experience?

In both my worst trade experiences, I exited because it was the end of the day. The financial damage was horrible and I knew I would beat myself emotionally later. I didn’t want to then lose sleep worrying that the stock would open the next day and continue going against me. So I say, “Rip the band-aid. Feel the pain. Move on.” Don’t compound the problem by drawing it out over time.

 Once something goes against you, you have to accept that you’re wrong and move on. You must start trading real small and recovering your loss — a couple hundred bucks at a time. It feels insignificant. However, you never want to try to get it all back at up on five different companies and rode the trend perfectly. The prices kept running higher and the stories got bigger. I made more than one trade, but it was a memorable score.






How Did Forex Trading Change Your Life?


homalbum:

Yes forex can really change your life if you only have strong desire to change your life. It's up to you. Forex is profitable business and millions of people are making money daily from this market. So you can do the same if you are confident, study very hard, be mentally prepared, have a clear map of future and act accordingly.

bangcool:

For myself, forex is my hobby. I love trading even i got profit or lost. Its like an art for me. Art to control emotion, art to predict market movement and art to see other people emotion when face the loss or profit. It's true that forex will give us a bit busy time, but it really nice when we got some profit. Also we can meet more people since forex become more famous righ now. We can find some new friend to share our hobby, share our technique and share our money but, who want share it with me?


Houssem Chriti:

Forex can indeed make your life easy. But in order to reach that stage we have to go through a harsh time of constant studying and practice in order to accumulate experience to use when trading. Our earnings in the Forex market will increase as our experience increases. After which we will be able to earn a living from our home, allowing us time to spend with others rather than doing other jobs. As a result our social life will also benefit.

Suchu:

Forex has drastically changed my life than before. Trading has taught me how to utilize the spare time. I find myself more busy and devoted to forex now-a-days. Now-a-days, I spend lots of time in forex, after college, before bed. It is very interesting to me. I can't keep myself away from forex. It helped me to earn pretty handsome cash. First before forex, I used to get bored with internet. But now I am into the forex, I find more connected to it.


uttam_ghosh5:

Forex this five alphabetical word has changed my life in some ways in past few days. I am a student and have morning classes. So I always have the whole afternoon in my hand but i have nothing to do. But after I got to know about Forex, I have been using my time which was going in vain in the earlier time. Forex has taught me to use my valuable time and create something out of nothing.

meroonesathi:

 Forex trading can be addicting because we can earn more profit with in a day. We can earn more money but the thing is that we need to have knowledge and experience.Forex trading has not changed me yet. But when I get busier on trading then I forget to eat my food. And my mama always shouts at me. 

But Forex trading has given me always best and pleasant experiences. Forex trading has solved my financial problem too. As I am student and my family is too much happy because I am studying with the help of my profit too.Well I am lucky person who started trading and still being trading. I never oppose Forex trading. But well, I am a bit different person than before due to Forex trading.


 richy5300:

When you say something is addictive, you know that you have consciously taken the steps to continue is use no matter its consequences. I would agree with you that forex can really be addictive though we made it so. Since we believe that when we spend long hours trading and doing other tasks related to forex, we are actually learning and producing results otherwise, it is burdensome when there is no headway. 

I too have had good and terrible experiences as well. I was defrauded the first time i tried trading because i was not well informed then and i thought i could give my business to someone else without having to worry about any problem associated with forex, unfortunately, it was a different case altogether.

atiarrahman:

Forex is a risky business. It can change a trader’s life style. To become a good forex trader he/ she have to give time. He / she has to gather knowledge about forex trade.

sheraz0009:

In my point of view forex made my life little busy and also made some impact in my life. At first my aim is that i will just earn money for forex but as time goes i feel like I'm a different person for others because i have learned many thing for forex and all the things I've learned from the time I'm in the demo up to the real forex.This is true fact that forex trading really improves not only your business skills but also your personality.Now i became more discipline and decent and i have learn the importance of money, and money is not something you could easily see and get anywhere.



dreamgirl:

Forex trading can change way of life of a investor it need plenty of your energy and effort to comprehend and also by trading much money it can change way of life and also help to alter your personal way of life by habit to comprehend and acquire much knowledge, If you want to keep take part in your purpose in Forex trading, Forex trading then one day it provides you with outstanding for you.

Legendkid:

Forex trading alters many aspect of our daily life the moment we start or enter forex trading,and mostly,it's for the positive.It changes our altitude towards money management,gives us a wide range of knowledge,makes our analysis knowledge more sharp. 

Forex trading can alter your daily routine, it's really true,since most of your former leisure time will be spend trading forex,it makes one addictive to his computer screen,so it will be me and my computer,my personal world. Forex trading brings gives one more knowledge and keep him/her more informed about the current rate of currency,it's alter our normal or former life routine,but for sure,for good.


A Process Orientation Is Essential To Success

 source: here

When Margie and I visited the Two Roads brewery in Stratford, CT, we were surprised to see how few people were involved in the brewing process.  Almost everything was computerized and automated.  This automation ensured that each step of the brewing occurred at exactly the right temperature, for exactly the right amount of time, with exactly the right amount of ingredients.  Once the brewer has the desired recipe, the key to successful production is standardization:  making the same excellent product every single time.

From a quality control vantage point, replacing subjectivity with objectivity is generally a desirable outcome.  The expert chef can get away with estimating ingredients by adding "a pinch here", but most of us are not experts.  If a machine can add the precise pinch, a potential source of error is removed.

In an activity such as trading, where emotions in the heat of battle can introduce wild elements of subjectivity, a process orientation is essential to success.  Algorithmic trading is the Two Roads version of money management, where every decision is precalculated and automated.  Yet even discretionary trading can be made rule-governed and process-guided.  An analogy would be playing poker or chess:  there are rules for making good and bad bets and good or bad moves on the board, even as there is considerable room for individual judgment.  Similarly, a football quarterback may call an audible at the line of scrimmage to take advantage of a defensive alignment, but the play called will have been pre-structured and well rehearsed.

The areas of trading that can typically be made more process-driven include:

1)  Research and idea generation:  Procedures for coming up with good trade ideas and investment theses;

2)  Trade expression:  How to structure the trade to achieve optimal reward to risk;

3)  Risk management:  How to bet enough on the idea to achieve a desired return on capital, but also to avoid an undesired drawdown;

4)  Trade management:  How to handle the position once it is on, including points to stop out, scale in, scale out, and take profits;

5)  Portfolio management:  How to allocate capital across trades to diversify returns and optimize equity curves;

6)  Self-management:  Procedures you implement to keep yourself in an optimal state for recognizing opportunity/threat and making decisions under time and emotional pressure.

Each of these areas can be mapped out and distilled into principles and checklists.  The checklist for an equity long/short investor will necessarily differ from that of the daytrader, but the categories will be similar.

If you are a process-driven trader, you can write a substantial essay for each one of those categories.  Indeed, if you were seeking capital for your trading, questions about each of the six categories above, along with detailed examples, would anchor an effective interview.

If your essay or interview responses would consist of a few sentences of generalizations, you know that your processes can be elaborated and tightened up.  Ultimately, your responses to the above should map to a distinctive and demonstrable edge in the marketplace. 

The goal is to figure out your best trading and then help you become as consistent as possible in enacting what you do best.  Your process should be the distilled essence and procedural expression of your greatest strengths.

What Said Gann

source: here

Over the past couple of weeks I have been reviewing an old trading book written in 1949 called 45 Years On Wall Street by W.D. Gann. I have done it for two reasons the first is that to be successful in anything you always have to do the basics very well, and part of this is periodically reviewing what you know or have learnt in the past. Every successful trader I have ever met spends time reviewing past trades, education, along with spending time developing their skills and learning news ones.

In reading the book it struck me that even though it was written 65 years ago, whilst times have changed some things never do. For example at the end of the book W.D. Gann the writer, gives answers to some of the common questions that he gets from clients, questions such as:

1. What is the best newspaper to consider

2. What is the best magazine to consider


3. Is such and such broker reliable


The questions we get asked here in 2014 are almost identical to the above, and I could add quite a few more. Another thing that struck me in this book 45 Years On Wall Street was that on page 4 W.D. Gann talks about stock picking newsletters. His comments were that many have tried to follow these newsletters and either lost or not made money and his reasoning and I quote was that “A smart man cannot follow another man blindly even though the other man is right” his reasoning is that you cannot have confidence in the other man if you do not know what his recommendations are based on.

Gann’s comments above are something I 100% agree with as over the years I have had many people ask me about stock picking newsletters and seen many who were not successful from subscribing to them. My reasoning was always that unless you know why you are entering or exiting yourself you will not have trust and as such you will make emotional decisions that will see you not enter, enter late or exit early or not exit at all.

Re-reading 45 Years On Wall Street re-enforced to me many things and why the old tried and true methods are still valid. It also re-enforced to me why we should stand firm when challenged by would be traders about why we are not teaching the latest fads.  Fads come and go in fashion, music and many other things whereas classics last forever. I am fully confident that a classic book full of classic rules and sound strategies like 45 Years On Wall Street will still stand the test of time in 50 years and even 100 years from now, and I am confident in this because one thing never changes and that is human emotions.